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 dnn estimator


Beyond Consistency: Inference for the Relative risk functional in Deep Nonparametric Cox Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

There remain theoretical gaps in deep neural network estimators for the nonparametric Cox proportional hazards model. In particular, it is unclear how gradient-based optimization error propagates to population risk under partial likelihood, how pointwise bias can be controlled to permit valid inference, and how ensemble-based uncertainty quantification behaves under realistic variance decay regimes. We develop an asymptotic distribution theory for deep Cox estimators that addresses these issues. First, we establish nonasymptotic oracle inequalities for general trained networks that link in-sample optimization error to population risk without requiring the exact empirical risk optimizer. We then construct a structured neural parameterization that achieves infinity-norm approximation rates compatible with the oracle bound, yielding control of the pointwise bias. Under these conditions and using the Hajek--Hoeffding projection, we prove pointwise and multivariate asymptotic normality for subsampled ensemble estimators. We derive a range of subsample sizes that balances bias correction with the requirement that the Hajek--Hoeffding projection remain dominant. This range accommodates decay conditions on the single-overlap covariance, which measures how strongly a single shared observation influences the estimator, and is weaker than those imposed in the subsampling literature. An infinitesimal jackknife representation provides analytic covariance estimation and valid Wald-type inference for relative risk contrasts such as log-hazard ratios. Finally, we illustrate the finite-sample implications of the theory through simulations and a real data application.


Calibration Prediction Interval for Non-parametric Regression and Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Accurate conditional prediction in the regression setting plays an important role in many real-world problems. Typically, a point prediction often falls short since no attempt is made to quantify the prediction accuracy. Classically, under the normality and linearity assumptions, the Prediction Interval (PI) for the response variable can be determined routinely based on the $t$ distribution. Unfortunately, these two assumptions are rarely met in practice. To fully avoid these two conditions, we develop a so-called calibration PI (cPI) which leverages estimations by Deep Neural Networks (DNN) or kernel methods. Moreover, the cPI can be easily adjusted to capture the estimation variability within the prediction procedure, which is a crucial error source often ignored in practice. Under regular assumptions, we verify that our cPI has an asymptotically valid coverage rate. We also demonstrate that cPI based on the kernel method ensures a coverage rate with a high probability when the sample size is large. Besides, with several conditions, the cPI based on DNN works even with finite samples. A comprehensive simulation study supports the usefulness of cPI, and the convincing performance of cPI with a short sample is confirmed with two empirical datasets.


Spatial Transformers for Radio Map Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Radio map estimation (RME) involves spatial interpolation of radio measurements to predict metrics such as the received signal strength at locations where no measurements were collected. The most popular estimators nowadays project the measurement locations to a regular grid and complete the resulting measurement tensor with a convolutional deep neural network. Unfortunately, these approaches suffer from poor spatial resolution and require a great number of parameters. The first contribution of this paper addresses these limitations by means of an attention-based estimator named Spatial TransfOrmer for Radio Map estimation (STORM). This scheme not only outperforms the existing estimators, but also exhibits lower computational complexity, translation equivariance, rotation equivariance, and full spatial resolution. The second contribution is an extended transformer architecture that allows STORM to perform active sensing, by which the next measurement location is selected based on the previous measurements. This is particularly useful for minimization of drive tests (MDT) in cellular networks, where operators request user equipment to collect measurements. Finally, STORM is extensively validated by experiments with one ray-tracing and two real-measurement datasets.


Statistical Properties of Deep Neural Networks with Dependent Data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

However, the statistical properties of DNN estimators with dependent data are largely unknown, and existing results for general nonparametric estimators are often inapplicable to DNN estimators. As a result, empirical use of DNN estimators often lacks a theoretical foundation. This paper aims to address this deficiency by first providing general results for nonparametric sieve estimators that offer a framework that is flexible enough for studying DNN estimators under dependent data. These results are then applied to both nonparametric regression and classification contexts, yielding theoretical properties for a class of DNN architectures commonly used in applications. Notably, Brown (2024) demonstrates the practical implications of these results in a partially linear regression model with dependent data by obtaining n-asymptotic normality of the estimator for the finite dimensional parameter after first-stage DNN estimation of infinite dimensional parameters. DNN estimators can be viewed as adaptive linear sieve estimators, where inputs are passed through hidden layers that'learn' basis functions from the data by optimizing over compositions of simpler functions.


Scalable Subsampling Inference for Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Deep neural networks (DNN) has received increasing attention in machine learning applications in the last several years. Recently, a non-asymptotic error bound has been developed to measure the performance of the fully connected DNN estimator with ReLU activation functions for estimating regression models. The paper at hand gives a small improvement on the current error bound based on the latest results on the approximation ability of DNN. More importantly, however, a non-random subsampling technique--scalable subsampling--is applied to construct a `subagged' DNN estimator. Under regularity conditions, it is shown that the subagged DNN estimator is computationally efficient without sacrificing accuracy for either estimation or prediction tasks. Beyond point estimation/prediction, we propose different approaches to build confidence and prediction intervals based on the subagged DNN estimator. In addition to being asymptotically valid, the proposed confidence/prediction intervals appear to work well in finite samples. All in all, the scalable subsampling DNN estimator offers the complete package in terms of statistical inference, i.e., (a) computational efficiency; (b) point estimation/prediction accuracy; and (c) allowing for the construction of practically useful confidence and prediction intervals.


Robust deep learning from weakly dependent data

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Recent developments on deep learning established some theoretical properties of deep neural networks estimators. However, most of the existing works on this topic are restricted to bounded loss functions or (sub)-Gaussian or bounded input. This paper considers robust deep learning from weakly dependent observations, with unbounded loss function and unbounded input/output. It is only assumed that the output variable has a finite $r$ order moment, with $r >1$. Non asymptotic bounds for the expected excess risk of the deep neural network estimator are established under strong mixing, and $\psi$-weak dependence assumptions on the observations. We derive a relationship between these bounds and $r$, and when the data have moments of any order (that is $r=\infty$), the convergence rate is close to some well-known results. When the target predictor belongs to the class of H\"older smooth functions with sufficiently large smoothness index, the rate of the expected excess risk for exponentially strongly mixing data is close to or as same as those for obtained with i.i.d. samples. Application to robust nonparametric regression and robust nonparametric autoregression are considered. The simulation study for models with heavy-tailed errors shows that, robust estimators with absolute loss and Huber loss function outperform the least squares method.


Radio Map Estimation: Empirical Validation and Analysis

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Radio maps quantify magnitudes such as the received signal strength at every location of a geographical region. Although the estimation of radio maps has attracted widespread interest, the vast majority of works rely on simulated data and, therefore, cannot establish the effectiveness and relative performance of existing algorithms in practice. To fill this gap, this paper presents the first comprehensive and rigorous study of radio map estimation (RME) in the real world. The main features of the RME problem are analyzed and the capabilities of existing estimators are compared using large measurement datasets collected in this work. By studying four performance metrics, recent theoretical findings are empirically corroborated and a large number of conclusions are drawn. Remarkably, the estimation error is seen to be reasonably small even with few measurements, which establishes the viability of RME in practice. Besides, from extensive comparisons, it is concluded that estimators based on deep neural networks necessitate large volumes of training data to exhibit a significant advantage over more traditional methods. Combining both types of schemes is seen to result in a novel estimator that features the best performance in most situations. The acquired datasets are made publicly available to enable further studies.


Statistical learning by sparse deep neural networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We consider a deep neural network estimator based on empirical risk minimization with l_1-regularization. We derive a general bound for its excess risk in regression and classification (including multiclass), and prove that it is adaptively nearly-minimax (up to log-factors) simultaneously across the entire range of various function classes.


Adaptive deep learning for nonlinear time series models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we develop a general theory for adaptive nonparametric estimation of the mean function of a non-stationary and nonlinear time series model using deep neural networks (DNNs). We first consider two types of DNN estimators, non-penalized and sparse-penalized DNN estimators, and establish their generalization error bounds for general non-stationary time series. We then derive minimax lower bounds for estimating mean functions belonging to a wide class of nonlinear autoregressive (AR) models that include nonlinear generalized additive AR, single index, and threshold AR models. Building upon the results, we show that the sparse-penalized DNN estimator is adaptive and attains the minimax optimal rates up to a poly-logarithmic factor for many nonlinear AR models. Through numerical simulations, we demonstrate the usefulness of the DNN methods for estimating nonlinear AR models with intrinsic low-dimensional structures and discontinuous or rough mean functions, which is consistent with our theory.


Estimation of the Mean Function of Functional Data via Deep Neural Networks

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this work, we propose a deep neural network method to perform nonparametric regression for functional data. The proposed estimators are based on sparsely connected deep neural networks with ReLU activation function. By properly choosing network architecture, our estimator achieves the optimal nonparametric convergence rate in empirical norm. Under certain circumstances such as trigonometric polynomial kernel and a sufficiently large sampling frequency, the convergence rate is even faster than root-$n$ rate. Through Monte Carlo simulation studies we examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed method. Finally, the proposed method is applied to analyze positron emission tomography images of patients with Alzheimer disease obtained from the Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database.